TS-NEWSMAIL.CF - There is a one-in-ten chance of the world being 6C warmer than it is
today by 2100 which would lead to cataclysmic changes in the global
climate with unimaginable consequences for human civilisation, leading
climate researchers have warned in an “Earth Statement”.
The risk of hitting the highest upper estimate for global warming
based on current levels of carbon dioxide emissions is now so high that
it is equivalent to tolerating the risk of 10,000 fatal aircraft crashes
a day, according to the 17 “Earth League” scientists and economists who
have signed the joint statement.
The experts have drawn up a
three-page summary of the action needed to be agreed on at the UN
meeting in Paris this December, which is widely seen as the last chance
for the world’s political leaders to agree on a binding treaty to
prevent the global climate from slipping into a dangerously precarious
state.
Scientists calculate that the world has already warmed by
an average of about 0.85C over the past 120 years and that a further
increase of no more than 2C is the lowest that could be tolerated
without running the risk of dangerous climate “tipping points” leading
to further, accelerated warming.
“We should aim to stay as far below [2C] as possible, since even 2C
warming will cause significant damage and disruption. However, we are
currently on a path to around 4C warming by 2100, which would create
unmanageable environmental challenges,” says the statement.
“If we do not act now, there is even a 1 in 10 risk of going beyond
6C by 2100. We would surely not accept such a high risk of disaster in
other realms of society. As a comparison, such a 1 in 10 probability is
the equivalent of tolerating about 10,000 airplane crashes every day
worldwide,” it says.
The Earth League researchers, who include
economists Jeffrey Sachs and Lord Stern as well as world renown climate
scientists from Europe, Brazil and India, warn that time is running out
for a climate deal that binds countries to a process of “deep
decarbonisation” where fossil fuels are largely replaced with cleaner
sources of sustainable energy by 2050.
“2015 is potentially one of the most decisive years in modern human
history on earth when it comes to determining our future prospects for
wellbeing and prosperity for 9 to 10 billion people over the next
century,” said Johan Rockstrom of the Stockholm Resilience Centre in
Sweden who chaired the Earth League group.
“The key element of
this statement is that a window is still open, but just barely. There is
still an opportunity to make the transition to a safe,
reasonably-stable climate in the future, and the decisions in 2015 may
be decisive for that opportunity,” Dr Rockstrom said.
“If we follow the current trajectory of ‘business as usual’, it would
have a one-in-ten probability of leading to 6C by the end of this
century, and 6C, I think even the climate sceptics would agree, is place
the world does not want to be in,” he said.
“It’s a place we have
no evidence whatsoever of being capable of supporting the modern world
as we know it. A one in ten probability of a catastrophic outcome is a
very high number, in fact it is so high it would be equivalent to
accepting 10,000 fatal aircraft crashes every day.
“It’s a
probability level that we would never ever accept in any other sector of
society, but we do so for some odd reason when it comes to the
slow-changing risk of climate change,” he added.
The Earth
Statement lists eight areas of action needed to be agreed on in Paris.
This includes the agreement that countries will only be able to emit
about half of the carbon dioxide – about 1,000 gigatonnes – that has
already been released into the atmosphere since the Industrial
Revolution. This would mean leaving three quarters of known fossil fuel
reserves in the ground.
“With current emission trends, the remaining 1,000 gigatonnes of CO2
would be used up within the next 25 years,” the statement says.
Professor
Sir Brian Hoskins of the Grantham Institute for climate change at
Imperial College London, one of the 17 signatories, said that climate
change has had too little recognition as an election issue in Britain
despite its huge significance for future generations.
“It’s like
the Titantic sailing into waters with icebergs and yet what we hear is a
debate in the bar about who’s going to buy the drinks. Get real. We are
all on this boat and there’s some pretty nasty stuff out there and yet
the conversation is at a trivial level,” Sir Brian said.
Dr
Rockstrom added: “We are on a trajectory that will leave our world
irrevocably changed, far exceeding the 2C mark. This gamble risks
disaster for humanity with unmanageable sea-level rise, heat waves,
droughts and floods.”
Eight-point plan to save the world
1. Governments must limit global warming to below 2C in order to limit unprecedented climate risks.
2. The limit of future CO2 emissions must be well below 1000 gigatonnes of CO2 to have a reasonable chance to hold the 2C line.
3. Countries must commit to deep decarbonisation, starting immediately and leading to a zero-carbon society by 2050.
A sign is posted near a farm in
Turlock, California. The US state is currently enduring one of the most
severe droughts on record (Getty)
4. Every country must formulate an emissions
pathway consistent with deep decarbonisation. For the sake of fairness,
rich countries and progressive industries can and should take the lead
and decarbonise well before mid-century.
5. Targeted
research, development, demonstration and diffusion of low-carbon energy
systems and sustainable land use are prerequisites to unleash a wave of
climate innovation.
6. A global strategy to limit vulnerability, build resilience and deal with loss and damage of communities from climate impacts.
7. Countries must agree to safeguard carbon sinks and vital ecosystems, such as forests.
8. Governments
must urgently encourage new sources of climate finance for developing
countries to enable our rapid transition to zero-carbon,
climate-resilient societies.
(independent.co.uk)